April 6th 2021, Crypto Chartbook: Bitcoin — Grab it while you can

We are incredibly bullish on Bitcoin and find two dominant reasons why we are this confident. We examine each asset from a fundamental and from a chart perspective to extract our forecast. What makes Bitcoin unique right now is its supply/demand imbalance. An imbalance not temporary but principle-based. In addition, a chart phenomenon that supports Bitcoin’s unique history becomes more and more evident. Bitcoin - Grab it while you can.

BTC-USD, Monthly Chart, Accelerated moves:

Bitcoin in US Dollar, monthly chart as of April 5th, 2021.

Looking at the logarithmic monthly chart of Bitcoin above, you can see Bitcoin’s unique trading behavior. Each of the five thrusts in the last ten years were unique in their structure. After a brief steep decline (red) follows a strong bounce to the break-even point (yellow). This consistent strength in itself is notable. Truly remarkable is what comes after. Prices accelerate substantially further up (turquoise). It is these boost moves in their consistency that we have not seen in any other instrument. It makes Bitcoin unique and creates an edge for the trader as well as the investor.

BTC-USD, Weekly Chart, Favorable abnormalities:

Bitcoin in US Dollar, weekly chart as of April 5th, 2021.

What has changed over the years is the substructure of moves within smaller time frames. The weekly chart above shows clearly how retracements are very flat within the last twelve months. Supply-demand imbalances are widening since the amount of coins free in the markets for speculation and trade is shrinking due to corporate hoarding of coins. Larger size offers are quickly gobbled up, which leads to small percentage retracements. This lines up with our fundamental findings observing exchange and corporate Bitcoin wallets.

BTC-USD, Daily Chart, Exploiting stacked edges:

Bitcoin in US Dollar, daily chart as of April 5th, 2021.

This stacking of odds both fundamentally and charts-wise on the larger time frames leads us to market participation. When low-risk opportunities presented themselves in fulfillment of our daily call pre-setup, we posted a trade entry in our free Telegram channel on April 5th 2021. We were already able to eliminate risk based on our Quad exit strategy. With prices now trading above our volume fractal analysis representing support (green horizontal line), we are positioned in case Bitcoin should break out to new highs.

Bitcoin - Grab it while you can:

The fundamental reason for these price explosions is hoarding. One aspect is hodlers. Another aspect is the limited amount of Bitcoin. Only 21 million coins will exist with the final coins being minted in around 2140. Once the circulating supply reaches its maximum, Bitcoin miners will no longer receive block rewards. Currently, just over 18.5 million BTC has been produced, equivalent to minting 88.3% of the maximum supply in just over a decade. This alone would have a negligible effect, though, on overall trading behavior.

What started supporting these accelerated moves was when many newbies came into the market to buy a Bitcoin or two to just let them sit on an exchange. Still not atypical for a multi-wave acceleration. Now the common picture has turned. We see many sizeable withdrawals from exchanges into wallets that typically do not show any distribution. This genuinely aggressive hoarding behavior of prominent players like hedge funds and pension funds, and large corporate players cause another more dramatic supply imbalance on the already limited supply of Bitcoin. Facts that fundamentally support the general belief that Bitcoin is a genuine alternative to Gold as wealth storage.

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Florian Grummes

Florian Grummes

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